Calendar estimate. The tool takes the first day of your last period and your cycle length, and places ovulation at cycle length minus luteal phase days later: day 14 of a 28-day cycle with a 14-day luteal phase, day 16 of a 30-day cycle. The fertile window is five days before ovulation to one day after. The next period is expected one cycle length after the last one started. With one period logged, the cycle length is the setting; with two or more, it is the rounded average of your last six cycles, ignoring any cycle shorter than 15 or longer than 60 days as a likely missed entry.
Confirmed ovulation. For the current cycle, a confirmed temperature shift places ovulation on the day before the first high temperature, and otherwise the first positive ovulation test places it on the day after the test. Either one replaces the calendar estimate for that cycle, and the dashboard says "confirmed by temperature" or "from your ovulation test" instead of "estimated". For finished cycles the same rules fill the Cycle by Cycle table and count the luteal phase.
The three-over-six rule. Looking at each cycle's temperatures by day, the tool finds the first day whose reading, and the two after it, are all above the highest of the six readings before it by at least 0.2 ยฐF (0.1 ยฐC). The coverline is drawn 0.1 ยฐF above that highest reading and the three days are marked. Readings with a note are shown but can be judged with that in mind; a fever or a short night can push one reading up without ovulation.
The chance of conception. The percentage on the dashboard and the week view is the day-specific chance of conception from intercourse on that day as measured by Wilcox, Weinberg and Baird in 221 women trying to conceive (New England Journal of Medicine, 1995): roughly 10% five days before ovulation, 16% and 14% on the next two, 27% and 31% on the two days before, 33% on the day itself. The study found no pregnancies after ovulation; the tool shows 5% the day after only to allow for error in the ovulation estimate. These are averages across many couples of many ages; your own odds depend on age, health and much else that a tracker cannot see.
Statistics. Average cycle and variation come from the gaps between the first days of your logged periods; average period from their lengths; regularity is 100 minus ten times the average difference of your cycles from their mean, so cycles within a day of each other score above 90. Two periods are the minimum, six or more give a fair picture.
Limits. Every date here is an estimate until a sign confirms it, and even a confirmed ovulation says nothing about the next cycle. Irregular cycles, recent hormonal contraception, breastfeeding, perimenopause and conditions such as PCOS make calendar estimates unreliable. FERTILE is not a contraceptive, not a diagnostic tool and not a substitute for a doctor.